درآمدی بر اشتغال در بخش‌های عمده استان تهران براساس داده- ستانده بخشی

This paper has been done in order to recognize and review the existing job market, to analyze obvious and hidden aspects of unemployment, and to develop employment field in Tehran province. First, by using statistical information and determining economic parts ratio of job market and work force’s divisional transition, the quantity and additive parts of work force for all towns of Tehran province were specified and then the real amount of work force demand was estimated in Iran horizon prospects up to 2025. In this paper, some models were used, based on output-input job market way. They include: the first method was based on employees statistics in economic portion. It consists of shift-share with location-quotient method. The second method input-output is based on production value added, that was used in three main parts such as economy, agriculture, service and industry to evaluate attraction or export of work forces in every town. The research findings show that employment share in agricultural part from 2006 to 2015 encountered 0.1% reduction and from 2016 to 2025 it would face 0.1% amplification. Employment share in industry part increased up to 0.3% and then to 1404 it would encounter 5% reduction. Service sector share in 2006 to 2015 was nearly stable (it decreased to 0.2%). And then from 2015 up to 2025 it continues its increase procedure and reached to 5% growth. Most employment variation is related to the share of service sector. Most location-quotient using employment model is related to Tehran city in service sector and least amount related to Tehran city is in agricultural and industrial part.